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Five times previously these playoffs, the Edmonton Oilers took to the ice for what may have been their final practice of the season. Each time they survived to practice another day by winning a game in which a loss meant elimination.
Sunday was different. The Oilers have gotten themselves to a place where it was the last full practice. However it turns out, there is exactly one game left to play in the 2023-24 National Hockey League season. That will take place in Florida on Monday night, with the winner to receive the league’s ultimate prize: the Stanley Cup.
A little unnerving then when a key Oiler was excused from that skate, and not one of the usual “maintenance men” either. The absentee was none other than assistant captain Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the squad’s longest-serving member.
Thnakfully, coach Kris Knoblauch put inquiring minds at ease afterwards:
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The man everyone simply calls “Nuge” (or occasionally “NUUUUUUUUGE!”) has carved out a unique role for himself: first line forward, first unit powerplay, first unit penalty-killer. He’s been a major contributor in those last two roles in particular. Those units themselves have jointly been key factors in driving Edmonton’s success through 24 playoff games.
- The powerplay has connected no fewer than 22 times in 115 minutes of opportunity, a spectacular success rate of 11.47 powerplay goals per 60 minutes. Moreover, they unit has not been burned for a shorthanded goal, meaning its net rate is the exact same as the gross: +11.47 goals per 60.
- The penalty kill has yielded just 4 goals in 123 minutes, a miserly 1.95 goals against per 60. That’s a fantastic goal suppression rate at even strength, never mind while down a man. Better still, the Oilers have managed to generate 3 goals themselves during that same span, meaning their net PK is just -1 in over 2 hours of action, a net differentail of -0.49 goals per 60.
Overall, the Oilers are +21 in special teams scenarios, just +1 in all other situations. The special teams have been hugely responsible for winning games and series. I wrote an in-depth analysis after the Dallas series, to which I refer the interested reader. I’ll add the following from the current, still incomplete final series:
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- 5v5: EDM 13 FLA 12
- Goalie out: EDM 3 FLA 2
- Special teams: EDM 5 FLA 1
In other words, more of the same formula: saw off at even strength and crush ’em on special teams.
Individual contributions
The nature of the process allows a single unit to get the lion’s share of the work on the powerplay. Five men a.k.a. the “first unit” have averaged over 4 minutes per game at the discipline with three of them having been on the ice for 21 of the 22 powerplay goals, the other two for 20. Nobody else on the team has averaged so much as a minute per game on the unit.
The penalty kill on the other hand is much more of a group effort. No one player has averaged as much as 3:00 per game, but no fewer than 12 guys are at over a minute apiece.
Exactly one skater on the team has played a significant role on both units, namely RNH. He is one of the main group averaging 4+ minutes on the PP, and the only forward to be north of 2 minutes per game on the PK.
The table is sorted in order of average special teams time per game, with major PPers highlighted in blue font, PKers in red. Nugent-Hopkins alone exists in a “purple state” where he is a major contributor to both.
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On average the combined special teams have averaged 9:56 of ice time per game, 5:08 on the PK, 4:48 on the PP. RNH stands out with his average of 6¼ minutes per game on special teams, about 63% of all of Edmonton’s ST time. The other four powerplay specialists barely PK at all, meaning their overall special teams time is almost entire the 4+ minutes they average on the PP. The greatest of those, defenceman Evan Bouchard, is at 4.4 minutes per game, roughly 44% of all special teams time. Those men nonetheless rank #s 2-5 on the table, followed next by the eleven regular penalty killers not named Nugent-Hopkins.
Nuge has delivered the goods on both units. In his 98 minutes on the PP, the Oilers have scored 21 times; in 52 minutes on the PK, the bad guys have scored just twice.
On a rate basis, that’s a whopping +12.9 goals for per hour in the one discipline, a skimpy -2.3 goals against per hour in the other. Each number is sensational; the combination of the two off the charts.
All of which puts the fan favourite pretty high up the list of players the Oilers are counting on in the biggest game of the season, indeed of their individual careers. Making Knoblauch’s mention of a “maintenance day” for the senior Oiler a little troubling, though his reassurance that “Ryan will be playing” is music to the ears of nervous Oil fans. Nuge has fully earned this opportunity and deserves to be in there.
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