Migration, housing offer optimism for Edmonton's economy: conference board

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The Conference Board of Canada’s (CBOC) economic outlook for Edmonton highlights signs of positivity heading into the final moments of the year.

“Population growth has provided great opportunities for people and it has introduced a dynamism into the city’s economy,” said CBOC economist, Robin Wiebe.

The board shared its outlook for the local economy in its Major City Insights: Edmonton — October 2024 report released on Thursday.

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While the report was released on Halloween, Edmontonians have nothing to be afraid of in CBOC findings, said Wiebe. Buoyed by key factors like migration, housing, and the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline, Wiebe said the city can feel good about its future.

“I think there are a couple reasons for some good optimism in Edmonton, not the least which is its strong population growth, which is boosting economic opportunities for a variety of sectors, not the least of which is its housing market,” said Wiebe.

Wiebe said the city is expected to have 58,000 newcomers in 2024. In 2023, Edmonton welcomed an estimated 66,800 people into the city in what was a banner year for migration.

He said the lion’s share of 2023’s migration came from international migration, which made up more than 65 per cent of the total number of newcomers. With reductions to the federal immigration targets coming, Wiebe expects local migration numbers to moderate accordingly.

“Before immigration started to really go up a lot, in the 20 years before that, Edmonton averaged about 10,500 net international migrants,” he said.

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“The major factor attracting people from other provinces is it has been a decent job market. And of course, the housing is quite affordable by national standards.”

Housing market approaching seller’s territory

Comparatively, Edmonton’s 2024 migration seems mild to last year’s, and it will likely continue to “taper off,” but the surge in population has still helped the economy, Wiebe said.

“The people that rely on selling things to make a living, whether it’s houses or clothes or whatever, are enjoying decent demand.”

Of the many sellers feeling the boom from the population increase, perhaps none are getting the benefits quite like the city’s housing market, which boasted an incredibly busy summer that contributed to a more than five per cent increase in aggregate home price year over year.

Although Edmonton realtors reported a firm seller’s market, the housing market still looks on paper to be balanced from a mathematical perspective, Wiebe said.

Examining the data from the Canadian Real Estate Association, he said, the sales-to-listings ratio hasn’t crested the seller’s market just yet.

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“It’s sitting in the low-to-mid 70 per cent range, which is, as I say, it’s getting towards seller’s market territory. But it’s not quite there,” said Wiebe.

While prices have increased for many homes, he said the listings have kept pace. Wiebe also echoed the findings of previous reports that suggest housing starts could be on pace for a decade-high total by the end of the year.

“You have to go back quite a ways to see under-construction volumes higher than they are now.”

Another factor that Wiebe suggested should give the city hope for its economic future is the completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline. With the pipeline more than doubling the province’s capacity to transport crude oil to the west for export, Wiebe said the economic benefits are kicking in across Alberta.

Its opening has already narrowed the price gap between Western Canadian Select and West Texas Intermediate oil indexes.

“So you got to be happy with that,” Wiebe said.

zdelaney@postmedia.com

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